'Survivor 50' predictions: Who will win the show's most competitive season?
'Survivor 50' predictions: Who will win the show's most competitive season?
Anthony Robledo, USA TODAYThu, February 19, 2026 at 12:01 AM UTC
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In just a week, "Survivor" fans will watch the pioneers and legends of the game face off against the latest breakout stars in the reality series' most competitive game since its 2000 debut.
When assembling his "Avengers: Endgame" level cast of 24 players, the largest batch to date, host Jeff Probst told USA TODAY in February 2025 that he sought out players who would not only represent the entire show but also demonstrate an undeniable hunger for victory.
"We chose you to represent 25 years of the greatest adventure of television. It's a big honor, and the only thing we want in exchange for giving you this spot is everything," Probst told the Season 50 cast on the Mamanuca Islands of Fiji, where filming began in June, as shown in a preview.
Ahead of the milestone season titled "Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans," viewers got to vote for key elements of the game, from hidden immunity idols to final four fire-making. It's unclear how the results of these decisions, the massive cast, or the level of competition will influence what fans see on TV.
The cast of "Survivor" Season 50 in the premiere episode airing Feb. 25, 2025.
But when viewers reach Day 26, there will be only one question on everyone's mind — who will win the $1 million and become the champion of the show's most coveted season?
USA TODAY spoke with former contestants Rob Cesternino (Seasons 6 and 8) and Kelley Wentworth (Seasons 29, 31 and 38) and analyzed various prediction markets to determine which players are likely to fare well.
Who does Rob Cesternino think will win 'Survivor 50'?
Cirie Fields' superpower on "Survivor" is being repeatedly underestimated and disarmed despite her reputation as a social powerhouse and strategic mastermind. Cesternino is not making this mistake, putting plenty of faith in Fields' ability to shorten her title of "the best to never win" with her first triumph in the series.
Fresh off his stint on "The Traitors," the beloved reality TV podcaster argued Fields can go far in the game because many of the newer players would jump at the chance to play with their hero.
From left: Rick Devens, Savannah Louie, Jenna Lewis-Dougherty, Joe Hunter, Cirie Fields, Christian Hubicki, Ozzy Lusth and Emily Flippen on "Survivor" Season 50.
"It would be tough to go against a 'Traitors' legend in Cirie. She has that win over in 'The Traitors' season one, but it would be really cool to see her get the win in 'Survivor 50,'" he says. "While there may be some who want to take a shot at a legendary player, Cirie could be able to surround herself with enough players who want to keep her around."
Since playing "Survivor" four times, Fields has played "Big Brother, ""Snake in the Grass," and was the sole winner of the first "Traitors" season. On "Survivor," she has previously placed 4th (Season 12), 3rd (Season 16), 6th (Season 34), and even 4th on the Australian franchises’ themed season “Australia vs The World."
Tiffany Ervin on "Survivor" Season 50.
From the new era batch, Cesternino also has faith that Tiffany Nicole Ervin could go far due to her low threat level, having only placed 8th in Season 46.
"Tiffany is the classic all-star season upside case. I saw it myself when Amber was the winner of Survivor All-Stars. When there's so many big targets on the board, a really underrated player like Tiffany could remind us why she was one of the favorites to win 'Survivor 46,'" he says.
He adds that Season 1 player Jenna Lewis can also make players believe she's just happy to be there while masking how badly she wants to win, and that Benjamin "Coach" Wade could be worshiped by the newer players by leaning into his "cagey old Dragon Slayer" persona.
Who does Kelley Wentworth think will win 'Survivor 50'?
Wentworth will be counting on Aubrey Bracco to finally win "Survivor" on her fourth attempt.
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Not only is the "Survivor: Kaôh Rōng" finalist a personal friend of hers, as the two both competed on "Edge of Extinction," but Wentworth feels she has the perfect combination of a strong skillset and low threat level required to go far.
Aubry Bracco on "Survivor" Season 50.
Wentworth acknowledged that the majority of the cast includes a plethora of immediate targets: big personalities, previous winners, Season 49 unknowns and "The White Lotus" creator Mike White.
"Within that, you have Aubrey, who could settle in really nicely and have people go after each other or eat each other first. Not that she's not a threat. She absolutely is a threat. Very dynamic player, incredibly smart," Wentworth says. "I do really believe in Aubrey."
Wentworth also echoed Cesternino's argument that Ervin from "Survivor 46" can potentially reach the final tribal council with her low threat level, allowing her more flexibility to make big moves. "She's not someone that you immediately look at and go, 'Oh, we have to vote her out right away.' And sometimes, when you do that, you can end up getting really far. So I think she could be a possible option as well."
She's also wondering whether three-time player Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick could go far, given her physical prowess and low threat level, as she is returning to the game for the first time since 2009.
What are prediction markets saying? Sights are set on Aubrey Bracco
Traders in prediction markets are placing all their bets behind one player.
According to the Kalshi market, Aubrey Bracco has an 83% chance of winning "Survivor 50," while Polymarket has the 39-year-old New Hampshire native at 87% as of Wednesday, Feb. 18.
Kalshi and Polymarket are both prediction markets where people trade on yes-or-no outcomes of future events across pop culture, sports, and politics.
Contestants Cirie Fields, Season 42 challenge beast Jonathan Young, and Season 48 favorite Joe Hunter are trailing far behind Bracco in both markets.
Wentworth explained why Hunter could go far in the game due to his reputation as a loyal ally. "We know how Joe plays," she says. "As annoying as that is as a viewer, because I want drama and I want backstabbing and I want conflict and all these things, it is a good strategy as a player to be loyal to the group you're with."
When does 'Survivor' 50 start?
"Survivor" Season 50 will premiere on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026. New episodes will air weekly on Wednesdays after that.
The three-hour premiere episode will air at 8 p.m. EST.
How to watch 'Survivor'
"Survivor" airs on Wednesday nights at 8 p.m. ET on CBS and on Paramount+ for subscribers of the Paramount+ Premium plan.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Survivor 50' predictions — Which three all-stars will win it all?
Source: “AOL Entertainment”
